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#1
03-02-2010, 09:35 PM
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Ice out 2010
Well, it's March 2 - the Olympics are over and the snow in Ohio will be gone in about a week. Thoughts are turning to ice out at Buck lake. Here's yesterdays satellite picture. All of the inland lakes are completely frozen over. What is sursprising to me is the lack of ice on Superior. There's a little in the bays, but that's it. The long range outlook for Ohio is for a colder than average March. A cooler Spring will certainly delay ice out....we'll just have to watch and see how it develops.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...r.143.250m.jpg 
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#2
03-06-2010, 10:26 PM
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Checked the Accuweather 15 day forecast for Hornepayne tonight. While highs get a couple of degrees above freezing each day, the lows are between 5 and 15 degrees at night over the next 15 days. This should keep the ice in place for a while. We're heading up on May 22 so it's going to be fun watching. I'm somewhat of a weather geek...I've read that the AO (Arctic Oscillation) may go below zero. This would keep a trough in the east and keep the colder air over the eastern half of the US. We'll see......
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#3
03-09-2010, 09:03 PM
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Wow, I found this interesting and I hope you guys do too. These links are pictures of Lake Erie. The first one was taken on March 6. Notice the large expanse of ice on the south shore of the lake. Also note the snow cover just north of the lake in southern Ontario. The second picture was taken on March 9 - only three days later. The ice is really starting to break up fast. However, it looks like the snow cover in southern Ontario is already starting to fade. I know they didn't get a whole lot of snow this year in Southern Ontario, but wow, that was fast.
 I still think that it will get cool again which should slow the thaw down.....we'll see.http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...e.143.250m.jpg http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...e.143.250m.jpg
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#4
03-12-2010, 09:56 PM
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Well, very warm in the Ohio valley today. We had our first thunderstorms of the Spring tonight. Checked the Accuweather forcast for Hornepayne. It will stay mild until next weekend (March 20/21) and then get colder with highs below freezing for about a week. The big storm for that weekend has been showing on the models for several days now so it looks to bring cold air back into the Eastern part of the country - but until then, pretty mild. The Lake Superior satellite pictures today are too cloudy to see anything, but the Lake Erie shot shows the ice breaking up into smaller pieces and it's being pushed north by the south winds. The snow in northern Ohio is also feeling the effects of the mild weather and is starting to melt. The ice on the lakes in west central Ohio is starting to disappear and the snow is gone except for the big piles in the parking lots. Below is today's Lake Erie shot. We'll look at some more satellite pictures early next week after this storm passes...maybe we'll be able to see how far north the snow cover has receeded.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...e.143.250m.jpg
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#5
03-14-2010, 08:56 PM
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As expected, most of the satellite pictures were of clouds today - March 14. However, there is one interesting shot of Lake Superior. Notice that the snow in the southern half of the UP is gone. A check of the Lake Michigan shot shows the snow is gone from the Door Peninsula in Wisconsin as well. Still plenty of ice, just no snow. However, I believe that this is only temporary as there will probably be more snow to fall in the UP.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...r.143.250m.jpg
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#6
03-15-2010, 08:46 PM
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It seems like I start every post with wow, but wow, it looks like the snow around Hornepayne is gone. I'm shocked. Here's today's satellite shot....looks more green to me...what do you think?
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...r.143.250m.jpg Upon further research, here's the weather data for March in Hornepayne as posted on Accuweather. The high temperatures in the last 7 or 8 days range from 48 to 60. At 8:30pm tonight, it's still 52 in Hornepayne while it's only 39 in west central Ohio. Wow! http://www.accuweather.com/canada-fo...code=P0M%201Z0
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#7
03-16-2010, 07:45 PM
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Too cloudy to see much around Hornepayne today, but here's a clear shot of Lake Erie. The wind seems to have consolidated the remaining ice along the south shore. The snow belt south of Erie shows up well as it's the only place with snow left.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...e.143.250m.jpg I forgot to post this last night. This is the snow and ice cover in North America as seen by a NOAA remote sensing satellite. Here's 5 days ago - snowcover in Hornpayne: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_g...010070_usa.gif And here's yesterday - bare ground almost to Hudson's Bay: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_g...010075_usa.gif The snow is also disappearing fast in Alberta. Edit: I tried posting the actual NOAA maps but it wouldn't let me. The links may not be good in a couple days.
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#8
03-17-2010, 09:30 PM
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Is it too early to think about the water level at Buck even though the ice hasn't melted yet? Well, Brett Anderson, meterologist at Accuweather stated in his Canadian weather blog today "The period from December 2009 through February 2010, which is referred to as meteorological winter, was the warmest on record for Canada. Official records only go back to 1948. The December 2009 to February 2010 period averaged 4 degrees (7 F) above normal for the country as a whole. In terms of precipitation, it was incredibly dry across the country. It was, indeed, the driest December to February (winter) period for the country as a whole since records were kept. The country on average had 20% less precipitation than normal". How will this effect the fishing...time will tell.
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#9
03-21-2010, 08:27 PM
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Winter has returned to Hornepayne. The high temperatures the last three days have been 40, 29, and 31 degrees. Todays high was in the low 30's as well (it's 22 at 8:00pm) but the official high has not been posted yet. I know that the Accuweather 15 day forcast is a computer generated forcast but the high temperatures for the next 15 days range between 24 and 42 degrees...much more seasonal for this time of year. These temperatures should slow the melting of the ice. Todays satellite shot of Hornepayne is mostly clouds but here's yesterday's shot...not much change.....ice but no snow.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...r.143.250m.jpg Here's today's shot at Lake Erie. There is a small ribbon of ice along the southern shore of the lake. The inland lakes in Northern Ohio are now ice free. http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...e.143.250m.jpg More to come....
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#10
03-22-2010, 09:05 PM
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Here's today's shot of Lake Huron. Although it's mostly clouds, I've been looking at the state of Michigan. The lakes in the southern part of the state look to be ice free. It also looks like Houghton Lake, in about the middle of the state, looks to be in transition. Torch Lake, north of Traverse City, looks ice free. Lakes north of there like Charlevoix, Burt, and Black are still ice covered. The other thing that stands out are the two white dots just north of Petosky. Those are the two ski resorts Nubbs Nob and Boyne Highlands and they still have snow on the slopes.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/mod...n.143.250m.jpg
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